IMS Lowers Pharmaceutical Market Forecast

Global market research firm IMS Health issued a disappointing report last week regarding the state of the pharmaceutical market. The world pharmaceutical market is now forecast to grow 2.5–3.5% this year to $750 billion, two percentage points lower than predicted last fall (which called for an estimated $820 billion), according to an IMS Health release. US pharmaceutical sales are likely to drop by 1–2% in 2009 with an essentially flat five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR), while other developed markets (Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Canada, and the United Kingdom) will experience a CAGR of 1–4% during the next five years. The worldwide financial crisis is the primary culprit.

Looking ahead, IMS predicts a rebound in 2010, but even then, expiring patents in 2011 and 2012 may curb sales growth, according to the release. As a result, the expected global CAGR for the pharmaceutical market through 2013 is 3–6%.

There is better news for the pharmerging markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, South Korea, and Turkey). IMS predicts that these countries’ pharmaceutical markets will grow 13–16% through 2013, ultimately contributing “more than half of the global market’s growth in 2009 and sustaining an average 40% contribution through 2013.”