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Angie Drakulich was editorial director of Pharmaceutical Technology.
IMS Health delivered some good news last week with its updated pharmaceutical market forecast.
IMS Health delivered some good news last week with its updated pharmaceutical market forecast. The market-research firm expects the global pharmaceutical market to grow 4–6% in 2010, reaching more than $825 billion. Looking ahead to 2013, industry can expect a 4–7% annual growth rate, reaching more than $975 billion. This forecast represents a 1% increase in IMS’s five-year global market estimates released earlier this year.
“While our outlook for the global market is more positive than earlier in the year, the fundamental dynamics of the innovation cycle, funding pressures, and the broader macroeconomic environment will result in mid-single-digit growth over the next five years,” said Murray Aitken, senior vice-president of Healthcare Insight at IMS in an Oct 7, 2009 press release. “Notwithstanding the improved prospects in the US market, the drive by pharmaceutical manufacturers to adapt to the longer-term marketplace trends and evolving patient needs will continue undiminished.”
Recent near-term growth prospects in the US provided a major reason for the new, increased forecast. “Pharmacy chains are more tightly managing their inventory levels based on expectations of patient demand, which has led to greater purchasing volatility than in previous years,” says the IMS release. “This also has played a role in unusually high sales growth in the first quarter of 2009 relative to forecast expectations.”
Also driving global pharmaceutical market growth, says IMS, is “the changing mix of innovative and mature products, and the rising influence of healthcare access and funding on market demand.”
Other major points from the new IMS report include:
Looking to 2010, IMS notes that its forecast could change again based on pending healthcare reform, the H1N1 pandemic, and the pace of recovery of the economic downturn.