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QuintilesIMS forecasts global spending on medicine will reach $1.5 trillion by 2021.
In a new report released in December 2016, QuintilesIMS detailed the global outlook for spending on medicine through 2021. The report, titled Outlook for Global Medicines Through2021, predicted global spending on medicine will reach approximately $1.5 trillion by 2021 on an invoice price basis, although annual growth will slow.
The United States will remain the world’s largest pharmaceutical market with China maintaining its spot as the second largest market, the report said. By 2021, new medicines are expected to dominate 35% of the market. This increase is driven by new breakthrough medicines. The number of new medicines expected to reach patients will increase, with 2240 new drugs currently in the late-stage pipeline, and 45 new active substances expected to launch on average per year by 2021, QuintilesIMS predicts.
Cancer is currently the largest area of research being conducted by the pharmaceutical industry. New gene-editing technologies like CRISPR are expected to reach human trials by 2021 and may impact the future of personalized cancer treatments. Other notable areas of cancer research include immunology, cell-therapy, and molecularly targeted agents.
QuintilesIMS said Brexit is one of the most important issues currently facing the UK pharmaceutical industry. However, the report noted, the impact of Brexit on the UK pharma industry is expected to be small, “a 1.5% slower growth rate in the downside scenario, than the basecase outlook for 4–7% growth to 2021, still the highest medicine spending growth in the EU5 in either case.”